Decisions, decisions… (December 19, 2010)
I work in the Web Content Management (WCM) world, a world that's rarely enjoys long periods of stability. Companies are bought, products are retired, licensing models are changed, fashions emerge and on top of all this, demands are made for ROI models by buying audiences at product selection stage. This makes for a decision-making process characterised by intense data-analysis: score sheets, fair and editable selection processes, and committee agreement.
In addition to WCM services, I work in a leadership role. A great deal of my time is spent analysing data, reviewing performance and (most liked) strategising.
The common strand here being planning, data analysis and the expectation that all decisions are based on solid data. With this in mind I just tweeted: Treat Your Facts With Imagination, but Do Not Imagine Your Facts.
OK, Goode, what's your point?
Intuitive decisions are not wrong just because data cannot be produced to prove them right. And, when/if intuitive decisions prove to be right, they weren't necessarily lucky guesses. Intuitive decisions can and often are good decisions but in our data driven world they appear to lack substance to anyone heavily biased to rational decision making.
"A good plan, executed now, is better than a perfect plan next week."
- General George S. Patton, Jr.
For further reading on this subject:
- http://www.decision-making-confidence.com/decision-making-models.html
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thin-slicing
The above web resource contains this reference too: It is also long been recognised, however, that once the enemy is engaged the analytical model may do more harm than good. I'd characterise both current market conditions and web content technology trends as uncertain. These uncertainties are disruptive to decision making processes and sometimes our data point in the wrong direction.
Strategy and the voice of reason
Plans, gathering data and research are all necessary activities — they inform our decisions and build our reasons. But it's not the only way to formulate and execute a plan. The voice of reason worth following maybe your intuitive innerself, or if you don't have one of those, it could be the opinion that seems to run in an opposed direction to what the data says. Data makes a better slave than master when it comes to strategy: Treat Your DATA With Imagination, but Do Not Imagine Your DATA. When rational and intuitive reasoning collide the trick is to know when to call time on data and go with intuition. This is the key to wise decision making.
Final thought: De Bono (1985) wrote "If you had complete and totally reliable information on everything, then you would not need to do any thinking"
